MARCH MADNESS: Favorites and Players to Watch

So it begins. The Madness is about to take off. And this year could get madder than ever. So mad even that, in comparison, Ron Burgundy seems like your average news anchor. It must have been years since the tournament was as hard to predict as this time. Believe me, this is not just some lame attempt to hold the tension high. This year is special.

For example, the top-10 teams have already lost a combined 74 games. Context anyone? Well, in 1948 The Associated Press launched their Top-25 poll. Since then there has never been such an amount of losses by the highest ranked teams. But we’re not finished. 21 of the combined 37 losses, the top-5 teams suffered, came against unranked opponents. That again is tied for the most ever. And speaking of ever. Never ever has a No. 1 seed lost seven games before the March Madness had even begun.

So basically you could let your little brother pick your bracket. This year is even less about knowledge. This year, March has put on the maddest costume he could find. And yet, there are favorites. Yet it is nice to get some information to put things kind of in perspective. At least it’s worth a try.

Favorites

Kansas Jayhawks

In the end, an early loss of overall top seed Kansas would come as much of a surprise as a Lakers game without a shot being taken by Kobe Bean Bryant. Yes, the Jayhawks might have to face some tough competition on their way through the tournament (Villanova, Maryland). Yes, the team’s got its flaws. On the other hand, while not even playing its best basketball, Kansas has not lost a single game since January 30th, winning 14 in row.

The Jayhawks are deep. Very deep. They are varied and versatile. They’ve got Perry Ellis and a two-headed guard monster composed of Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham. It will be tough to find a more well-rounded team. And therefore, without much doubt, the Jayhawks are the favorites to at least make the Final Four.

Michigan State Spartans

But still, there is competition. Some pretty fierce competition. How about the nation’s best offensive team? A program that has made it to the Final Four last year, that nevertheless is referred to by its head coach as probably one of the best teams he has ever worked with. And Tom Izzo has worked with some pretty decent teams in the past. Yet, this one might be special. Particularly if you take into account that it is home to a player who is the first one to average 19 points, 7 assists and 7 rebounds. No-one else achieved this kind of record in Spartans history – ever since the NCAA has started formally recording assists.

It’s quite safe to say that Denzel Valentine is among the best players competing for the championship. As for the Spartans, they’re coming into the national tournament as Big Ten champions. Of course that doesn’t mean success when competing on the big stage, but it’s still an indicator of what that team is capable of. For some that might be enough, for the selection committee, though, it was not.

Virginia Cavaliers

They didn’t grant Michigan State with a regional top seed. The Spartans are the Midwest’s number two. Close, but still behind Virginia. And this is where the fun begins. In 2014 the Cavaliers also started the tournament as a top seed, made it to the Sweet 16 – and lost. “To whom?”, you might ask yourself. Well, to Michigan State. Last year Virginia got rewarded with a No. 2 seed. And again the season ended in disappointing fashion. Again the Spartans were too much to deal with. This time in round two.

So there might very well be some desire for revenge should the two rivals face off again. Especially since Virginia brings everything to the table to force yet another clash. Yes, the front court is a bit thin. Yet the Cavaliers are in the top 10 in adjusted offensive- and defensive efficiency. They shoot well, they defend well. Not to forget the impressive backcourt around London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon. Speaking of which: watch out for a duel between Brogdon and Valentine. Two of the country’s best backcourt players going at each other. Could be entertaining.

North Carolina Tar Heels

If there was a time in your life, though, when you fell in love with the po- po- post-game, you might want to look elsewhere. Maybe to Chapel Hill. They say, they’ve got a pretty decent front court player there. Arguably the best big man in the country, Brice Johnson is one of the many reasons that Michael Jordan’s alma mater is one of the biggest power houses the tournament has to offer.

Not only have the Tar Heels won seven of their last eight games, they also crowned themselves ACC champions. For the whole year UNC has only lost six games – by a total margin of 22 points. The Tar Heels have got so many options, even MJ should be impressed. Still they should not consider themselves to be a safe bet for the Final Four. Because danger lurks everywhere.

Honorable Mentions

From Teams like Villanova that want to make up for being kicked out of the tournament on opening weekend in the previous two years – as No. 1 and 2 seed respectively. Or the well experienced Oklahoma Sooners with top prospect Buddy Hield. You also should not count out a team coached by John Calipari. Having lost seven players to the NBA, the Kentucky Wildcats might not be the same team that went 34-0 last year. Yet, they are still a dangerous bunch that has just started figuring out how to play together offensively. Heck, even Oregon has got a shot. At least the Ducks are the West Region’s top seed. They are deep and talented …

Players to Watch

Chris Boucher (Oregon, Forward, Senior)

…and they have one of the most unique players in the competition. Chris Boucher was 19 when, for the first time ever, he played organized basketball. Before being called by Oregon he played at a junior college, now he is one of the nation’s best two-way rebounders, a ferocious shot blocker with enormous wing span. Would be great if Boucher could also hit the occasional three, right? Well, he can. Told ya – unique!

Brice Johnson (North Carolina, Forward, Senior).

Maybe even more unique than Brice Johnson – yet, not better. Johnson gets 16,6 points, 10,6 rebounds und 1,3 blocks per game. Great numbers that get even more impressive when you take into consideration that Johnson stands out in a great team. The Senior is North Carolina’s leader and might even take the Tar Heels to another title.

Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, Guard, Senior)

Buddy Hield’s odds of winning it all with Oklahoma may be a bit lower, the Guard’s ceiling appears to be higher though. Not only did Hield blossom into a potential lottery pick, some even call him the best player in the country – and the numbers support such assumptions. Hield’s stat line is impressive. Maybe 25 PPG, 5,6 RPG and 2,1 APG are even enough to win the Wooden Award for the player of the year.

Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, Guard, Senior)

Hield, that is to say, is even considered to be front runner. Not the only front runner though. The other one is a constant triple-double threat and has a pretty decent shot at the title. Denzel Valentine is as versatile as they get, his statistical output – remember the stat line? – stands out among all the players in NCAA history.

Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia, Guard, Senior)

It’s even more impressive than Malcolm Brogdon’s. On the other hand, Virginia’s Guard doesn’t have to score much to still have huge impact on the game. That’s what Defensive Players of the Year do. And that’s what also made Brogdon ACC Player of the Year.

Brandon Ingram (Duke, Forward, Junior)

Yet no one talks of Brogdon as a potential top pick for the 2016 NBA Draft. This honor goes to… Brandon Ingram. Duke’s Forward might not a be a safe bet, but his chances have increased. Ingram’s skill set is unique, his skinny frame not a turn off. In the end the Junior might be the main reason why former champ Duke can at least dream of making another run despite having lost Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow to the NBA.

Jakob Poeltl (Utah, Center, Sophomore)

And speaking of the NBA. We might be able to welcome one of our neighbors to the Association. In the past Austrians have had a tough time, looking for a countryman in the world’s best basketball league. Until now. Now they’ve got Jakob Poeltl. Many see Utah’s Center as an early lottery pick – and rightfully so. Not only does Poeltl hit 65,5 percent of his shots from the field, this season he also led the Utes in scoring (17,6 PPG) and Rebounding (9). So watch out for his performance during the tournament.

Player, you’d love to watch but can’t

I mean, at least you don’t have to bother looking for Ben Simmons. Why? Because the guy who, for a long time, was the safest bet to be the 2016 draft’s first pick will not be playing in march. His Louisiana State Tigers underperformed all season long and hence are not part of America’s 64 best college teams. Even Simmons wasn’t able to change that.

We’ll see how that influences his draft stock, right now that doesn’t matter anyways. It’s all about college ball. About the madness starting today. About upsets. About brackets. It’s going to be some crazy almost three weeks. Full of basketball action. Full of surprises. And it’s going to be madder than ever!